Chapter 2 Core and Settlement Strategy

CHAPTER 2: CORE AND SETTLEMENT STRATEGY

AIM:       Provide For The Growth Of County Laois In Line With The National Planning Framework / Regional Spatial And Economic Strategy (RSES) To Accommodate A Target Population Of Up To 94,700 By 2027 In The Settlements And Rural Areas Of County Laois. 

2.1 INTRODUCTION

Planning Authorities are required to prepare and incorporate a Core Strategy that shows the Development Plan is consistent with national and regional objectives under the National Planning Framework (NPF) and the relevant Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy (RSES).

Under the Act, a Core Strategy focuses on:

• Defining a settlement hierarchy for the County that is consistent with the NPF and RSES.
• Transposing the prescribed NPF and RSES housing and population targets set at County level for the rural and urban centres identified within the settlement hierarchy.
• Providing an evidence-based rationale for the land proposed to be zoned for residential and mixed-use development having regard to the capacity of existing zoned land and the phasing of development taking account of the location of public transport and services.
• Demonstrating how the Planning Authority has had regard to the statutory Retail Planning Guidelines in setting out objectives for retail development.

The Core Strategy sets out a vision for Laois and strategic aims required to deliver this vision. The development of this Core Strategy has been guided by the Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government ‘Guidance Note on Core Strategies’ (2010), taking into account relevant changes brought about through the publication of the NPF and RSES. The Core Strategy of this Development Plan provides relevant information to demonstrate consistency with both the NPF and RSES and sets out core aims that, in turn, define and shape the following:

• preferred growth locations,
• revised population targets and population distribution and
• land use zoning requirements .

These are expressed in the Core Strategy Table 2.15 and related zoning maps in Volume 2, Settlement Plans.

2.2  Strategic Aims

The strategic aims which relate to the advancement of this plan are set out hereunder. These aims are addressed fully in subsequent chapters within the plan. A series of specific Core Strategy policy objectives are included in Section 2.8.

• To guide the future development of Laois in line with national and regional objectives set out in the NPF and RSES and other national guidelines and policies;
• To promote and facilitate the development of the County in accordance with the provisions of the Core Strategy, including directing development in line with the settlement hierarchy and promoting development at an appropriate scale that is reflective of the terms of the Core Strategy Table and zoning maps.
• To apply the Settlement Hierarchy to determine the scale, rate and location of proposed developments and apply appropriate development management measures to ensure compliance with the Settlement Hierarchy including the population targets for the County.
• To promote the delivery of at least 30% of all new homes that are targeted in settlements within their existing built-up footprints;
• To ensure that development is promoted, supported or facilitated through the Laois County Development Plan that provides for climate action including the increased risk of flooding and the promotion of sustainable transport options and renewable energy where possible in order to achieve a successful transition to a low carbon economy;
• To support the achievement of more self-sustaining towns and villages through residential and employment opportunities together with supporting social and community facilities
• To monitor and maintain a record of residential development permitted in settlements designated under the Settlement Hierarchy in order to ensure compliance with the population allocations defined by the Core Strategy and to adjust the approach to permitting development proposals in instances where Core Strategy objectives are not being met.

Underpinning the strategic aims above in relation to population growth, housing requirements and the future spatial development of our county are the following complimentary strategic aims which are integral in delivering the vision for the county during the period 2021-2027:

• To Build on the regional-level linkages between County Laois and other parts of the Eastern and Midlands Region and adjoining regions such as the South Region and Mid-West Region by supporting the implementation of regional spatial and economic strategies, collaborating on support for critical enabling infrastructure, such as inter-regional road and rail linkages, and co-operating on areas of mutual planning interest;
• To Target Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Irish Indigenous industries to appropriate zoned locations in the Key Towns  of Portlaoise and Graiguecullen / Carlow and the Self Sustaining Growth Town of Portarlington and build on the economic strengths and tourism opportunities of County Laois in a balanced and sustainable manner focusing on the opportunities as outlined in the following sections;
• To Facilitate the provision of and improvements to community, social and recreational infrastructure and ensure universal access to all to such facilities throughout the county for all its residents;
• To Facilitate Job creation within the County to ensure that the county grows in a sustainable manner;
• To provide for sustainable transport infrastructure and connectivity including walking and cycling infrastructure and initiatives and optimise the return of investment on infrastructure while preserving the natural and built heritage;
• To achieve a sustainable, integrated and low carbon transport system for the county and to protect, improve and extend water services and other enabling infrastructure in line with national, regional and local population and economic growth for the count;
• To Protect, conserve and enhance the built, natural and cultural environment through promoting awareness, utilising relevant heritage legislation and promoting good quality urban and rural design;
• To Support the development of key infrastructure such as telecommunications, electricity, gas to enable economic development.

2.3 Strategic Development of County Laois Within a National Context (NPF)

The National Planning Framework (NPF) is a high-level strategy that will shape growth and development in Ireland out to the year 2040. The NPF draws upon lessons learned from the National Spatial Strategy 2002-2022 and provides a framework for the sustainable development of Ireland’s existing settlements.

As a framework document it sets in train a process by which more detailed planning documents must follow, including the relevant RSES and County Development Plan. It sets out ten National Strategic Outcomes (NSO’s) which underpin the overarching vision for the country and serve as shared goals and contains a range of National Policy Objectives providing a wider context for targeting future growth across the country.

With regards the Eastern and Midland Region, the NPF states that the region’s most significant place-making challenge will be to plan and deliver future development in a way that enhances and reinforces its urban and rural structure and moves more towards self-sustaining, rather than commuter driven activity.

In turn, this allows its various city, metropolitan, town, village and rural components to play to their strengths, while above all, moving away from a sprawl-led development model. The NPF identifies an urban structure for the Region based on commuting patterns, with reference to the EU/OECD definition of ‘functional urban areas’ (FUAs) which is used to identify areas with different sub-regional interdependencies and influence in the region.

Furthermore, the NPF includes specific targets related to securing compact and sustainable growth in Ireland’s towns and cities, recognising that the physical format of urban development in Ireland is one of our greatest national development challenges. As such it states that within the Eastern and Midlands Region, 30% of all housing outside of Dublin City and its suburb footprints are to be delivered within existing urban footprints.

The NPF further states that projecting housing requirements more accurately into the future at a Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy and local authority development plan level (e.g. through Core Strategies) will be enabled by the provision of new statutory guidelines to ensure consistency of approach, implementation and monitoring. This is enshrined in National Policy Objective 36 (NPF; p95);

National Policy Objective 36: New statutory guidelines, supported by wider methodologies and data sources, will be put in place under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act to improve the evidence base, effectiveness and consistency of the planning process for housing provision at regional, metropolitan and local authority levels. This will be supported by the provision of standardised requirements by regulation for the recording of planning and housing data by the local authorities in order to provide a consistent and robust evidence base for housing policy formulation.

2.3.1 IMPLEMENTATION ROADMAP FOR THE NATIONAL PLANNING FRAMEWORK

The Implementation Roadmap for the National Planning Framework (July 2018) highlights the Governments focus on achieving alignment between national, regional and local planning policy and practice. It addresses issues around the legal status of the NPF and provides transitional population projections for the period up to 2031. It also sets out mechanisms to ensure that Development Plans will broadly align with the NPF and RSES’s to address the six-year period up to 2026/2027.

The Roadmap provides transitional population projections for these milestones at a regional and county scale, in order to inform Development Plans for the period 2026 and 2031. The transitional population projections for the Eastern and Midland Region are listed in the table below.

Table 2.1: Transitional Regional and County Population Projections to 2031 for the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly.

Regions and Counties	2016	2026	2031
MIDLANDS
Westmeath	89,000	96,500-98,500	100,000-102,500
Laois	84,500	92,500-94,000	95,500-97,500
Offaly	78,000	85,000-86,500	88,000-90,000
Longford	41,000	44,500-45,500	46,000-47,000
Subtotal	292,500	318,500-324,500	329,500-337,000

Source:  Extract from NPF Implementation Roadmap, p13

2.3.2  HOUSING NEEDS DEMAND ASSESSMENT

In order to ensure that the plan-making system is supported by a robust methodology to inform policies and funding initiatives around housing and associated land requirements, the NPF (NPO 37) states that a Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA) will be developed by each Local Authority to support the preparation of housing strategies and all related housing policy outputs, e.g. City and County development plans, local area plans, traveller accommodation plans etc.

The purpose of the HNDA tool is to:

• Assist local authorities to develop long-term strategic views of housing need across all tenures.
• Provide a robust evidence base to support decisions about new housing supply, wider investment and housing related services that inform an overall national housing profile.
• Inform policies about the proportion of social and affordable housing required, including the need for different types and sizes of provision.
• Provide evidence to inform policies related to the provision of specialist housing and housing related services.

The Core Strategy must give effect to the NPF and RSES hierarchy by setting population targets and associated requirements for housing. This must now be undertaken through the HDNA process.This Core Strategy Chapter sets out the population targets and housing requirements for Laois for the period 2021-2027. The HNDA process is elaborated and presented in greater detail in the Draft Housing Strategy (see Appendix 3).

2.4  Strategic Development of County Laois within a Regional Context (Eastern & Midlands Region)

The Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy (RSES) for the Eastern and Midland region came into force in June 2019, superseding the Regional Planning Guidelines for the Midland Region. The RSES is a high-level plan that seeks to support the implementation of the NPF by providing a strategic planning and economic framework for the region’s sustainable growth and development. It echoes the NPF in emphasising sustainable development patterns and seeks to focus growth within the footprint of existing urban areas and in key regional growth settlements.

The RSES seeks to determine at a regional scale how best to achieve the shared goals set out in the National Strategic Outcomes (NSOs) of the NPF. To this end, the Strategy sets out 16 Regional Strategic Outcomes (RSOs), which are aligned with international, EU and national policy and which in turn set the framework for City and County development plans.

The RSES also sets out a settlement hierarchy for the Region and identifies key growth areas which will see significant development up to 2031 and beyond. There are three distinct areas across the Eastern and Midland Region comprising of the Dublin Metropolitan Area, the Core Region and the Gateway Region (of which Laois is located).

Figure 2.1: Settlement Strategy for the Eastern and Midlands Region (Fig 4.2, RSES)

2.4.1  SETTLEMENT HIERARCHY FOR THE REGION

Within the growth strategy for the region, the RSES has also determined a settlement hierarchy, depicted in Figure 2.1 and settlement hierarchy table below.

Table 2.2: Settlement Hierarchy for the Region

Dublin City and Suburbs	International business core with a highly concentrated and diversified employment base and higher order of retail, arts, culture and leisure offer. Acts as a national transport hub with strong inter and intra-regional connections and an extensive commuter catchment
Regional Growth Centres	Regional Growth Centres are large towns with a high level of self-sustaining employment and services that act as regional economic drivers and play a significant role for a wide catchment area.
Key Towns	Large economically active service and/or county towns that provide employment for their surrounding areas and with high-quality transport links and the capacity to act as growth drivers to complement the Regional Growth Centres
Self-Sustaining Growth Towns	Self-Sustaining Growth Towns with a moderate level of jobs and services – includes sub-county market towns and commuter towns with good transport links and capacity for continued commensurate growth to more self-sustaining.
Self-Sustaining Towns	Self-Sustaining Towns with high levels of population growth and a weak employment base which are reliant on other areas for employment and/or services and which require targeted catch up’ investment to become more self-sustaining
Towns and villages	Towns and villages with local service and employment functions
Rural	Villages and the wider rural region

Within the top three tiers of the hierarchy, settlements are clearly defined by the RSES. Settlements within the other four tiers are to be further defined in each County’s Development Plans. The Regional Growth Centres consist of Athlone, Drogheda and Dundalk which will be supported by Key Towns.

Co Laois is located in the Midland Region Strategy Planning Area of the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly. To achieve effective regional development, Dublin and the regional growth centre of Athlone will be supported by the complementary development and regeneration of a small number of selected key towns such as Portlaoise and Graiguecullen/Carlow.

The RSES 2019, indicates the functional areas comprising of the Dublin Metropolitan Area, Core Region and the Gateway Region. Co Laois is part located within the Core region and the Gateway region. The Core region includes the peri-urban hinterlands in the commuter catchment around Dublin, whilst the gateway region acts as an inter regional gateway to the rest of the island.  

Map 2.1: Core and Gateway Region within Laois

Region	Growth Enablers
Core Region	To promote continued growth at a more sustainable rate , whilst providing for increased employment and improved local economies , services and functions to allow towns become more self sustaining and to create the quality of life to attract investment. Catch up investment to promote consolidation and improvement in the sustainability of those areas that have experienced significant population growth but have a weak level of services and employment for residents.  Portarlington is located within the regional functional area.
Gateway Region	Portlaoise Key Town plays a regional role in providing key employment and services for their own extensive hinterland Graiguecullen Key Town also has an important function as a town that straddles the regional boundary with the southern region and acts as a Gateway in this respect. It too, will play a regional role in providing key employment and services for its own extensive hinterland. Regeneration of small towns and villages, with a focus on the identification of the rural town and village and rural regeneration priorities to bring vibrancy to these areas.

In relation to Co Laois, the Settlement Strategy for the region designates Portlaoise and Graiguecullen aS Key Towns, recognising that the towns provide a function at a much higher level than its resident population and provides key employment and services for its extensive hinterlands. Within the higher order settlements of Portlaoise and Graiguecullen[1], the RSES asserts that core strategies should apply higher densities in these towns. However, the RSES further states there should be a graded reduction in residential densities for Self-Sustaining Growth Towns, Self-Sustaining Towns, towns and villages that are commensurate to the existing built environment.

In developing this settlement hierarchy, the RSES recognises that population and employment size are not the sole determinant of a settlement’s functional role or in the consideration of its strategic regional significance. The strategy states that;

‘Some towns with a large population base located within the catchment of Dublin have emerged mainly as commuting towns, with a level of function significantly lower than their population base. Conversely, other towns have a level of function higher than their population base and play a key regional role’ (EMRA RSES, P46).

A number of key criteria were considered in the development of the asset base, which can be summarised as follows from Table 3.1 of the RSES. This approach has been utilised to guide the development of Laois’s Settlement Hierarchy, as elaborated in Section 2.6.

Table 2.3: Asset Based Approach to choosing the settlement hierarchy for Co Laois

DATA INDICATOR	DESCRIPTION	RATIONALE
SCALE	The scale of population, growth rates and local ambition for sustainable compact growth	Settlements of Critical mass of population to drive county and add to regional development The growth rates were applied to identify the capacity for future growth. Balancing high growth rates with investment in job creation, social and physical infrastructure has guided the settlement hierarchy for Co Laois. The NPF designations of Portlaoise and Graiguecullen as Key towns within the Region, both of which have the critical mass and ability to drive regional growth for the Midlands and the Southern region in combination with Carlow. Portlaoise is identified as a KEY town with a population of  22,050 and has a jobs to resident worker ratio of 0.997 Griaguecullen is identified as a KEY town with a population of 4,692 (together with Carlow Town, the population is 24,272which is also a Key town within the Southern Region Assembly areas RSES) Carlow/Graiguecullen has a jobs to resident worker ratio of 0.881.
FUNCTION	The scale of employment provision and commuting flows; Particular sub-regional interdependencies and influence	The mapping of the Functional Urban Area for Laois has determined the commuter catchment of spread  of the influence of the settlement . AIRO has provided this information to Laois County Council which indicates the FUA for Portlaoise, Tullamore, Carlow and Kildare. This information has informed the settlement hierarchy. The Commuter data for Laois shows us which towns within the settlement hierarchy are commuter based and which are self sustaining.  Co Laois is particularly fortunate to have a high level of rail infrastructure which has made commuting from the county a strong feature a sustainable manner. The settlement strategy has justified the settlement status of each town based on their assets and in line with the settlement typologies in the RSES.  The Retail Hierarchy for Co Laois has taken into account the RSES designations, Retail Planning Guidelines and a review of the Retail Strategy 2017-2023 has been carried out. The designated settlements within the County Settlement Strategy already provide a good mix of convenience and comparison shopping and this is reflected in the plans for each of the towns in the County.
PLACEMAKING	This is linked to ‘Functionality’ in terms of provision of suitable sites and property solutions to meet enterprise and labour force expectations	Quality of life factors are important in how well a place functions and in attracting people to live, invest, work and visit in. Access to a range of amenities such as cultural, social , health , education, etc are integral to the successful development of any town or village. A review of all assets in this regard for each town and village was carried out to inform their placement on the hierarchy. In relation to Portlaoise – the Key Town – Midland Hosital Portlaoise provides an important health care function for the town and its hinterland stretching beyond the county boundary. Additional to this primary health care centres provide important services and are located in Portarlington at Kilnacourt House and Mountmellick. The pobal HP Deprivation Index which measures the affluence and disadvantage in the County has been mapped to ascertain the current position and where potential areas for investment exist. In relation to improving places within the county, leveraging Urban Regeneration Development Funding (URDF) has proved successful for Portlaoise in terms of transitioning to a low carbon town and also celebrating its heritage and reimaging a Cultural Quarter within Portlaoise Town Centre. Rural Regeneration Development Funding (RRDF) is also applicable to the towns of the county with populations less than 10,000 people. Other streams of funding utilized to improve places within the County are Town and Village Renewal Scheme (TVRS) and funding from Laois Partnership through the Local Community Development Committee.
ENTERPRISE ECOSYSTEM	The availability of economic development assets and clusters	The location of strategic employment opportunities is guided by the location of existing economic opportunities upon which to develop. To this end, in Portlaoise J17 National Enterprise Park (Togher) is a substantial land bank for future job creation, given its location on the M7/M8. Other opportunities exist in Portarlington adjoining the Railway station – the former Avon Lands. Other Strategic employment zones have been identified in locations across the settlement strategy appropriate to the scale and function of the town and services required.
CONNECTIVITY	Transport accessibility and trip profiles, including internal trips	County Laois is serviced by 3 rail stations at Portarlington, Portlaoise and Ballybrophy which connects the  county with both north south routes and east west in Portarlington. In particular the Key Town of Portlaoise is progressing public bus and rail improvements to service the town and Graiguecullen in relation to connecting in with the bus and rail in Carlow Town.  Walking and cycling are key objectives for each of the towns within the settlement strategy.
NATURAL CAPITAL	Environmental sensitivities, resources and assets, Water quality, flood risk	The natural capital within the county such as Designated sites Non designated sites Green infrastructure Ground water extraction Peatlands and forested areas The baseline information for the County used in the context of developing the SEA / AA/ SFRA has informed the development of the settlement hierarchy and the growth of each town and village. Strategic Flood Risk Assessment has interrogated zoning maps to ensure measures are put in place to protect such zones. The potential of areas to respond to climate change actions in terms of energy and waste has also been considered and informs the strategy.
INFRASTRUCTURE	Current and planned infrastructure capacity	Water services and Irish water data in relation to capacities and future potential and investment have been used to inform the growth of settlements. Many of the towns have routes for roads objectives for future development and specifically local transport plans will further inform the capacity of the towns and villages and look at integrating all forms of transport in a sustainable manner.

2.4.2                       SETTLEMENT HIERARCHY FOR LAOIS

In developing a settlement hierarchy for County Laois, an Asset Based Approach similar to that used in the preparation of the RSES was adopted (as indicated in Section 2.3). This amended version identifies and builds on a combination of social, economic and natural assets and potential that is available within towns and smaller settlements in the County. This has also been informed by the criteria listed in the Hierarchy of Settlements and related Infrastructure considered by NPF.

Table 2.4: Settlement Hierarchy for Laois

SETTLEMENT TYPOLOGY	DESCRIPTION	SETTLEMENTS	POPULATION 2016
KEY TOWNS	Large economically active service and/or county towns that provide employment for their surrounding areas and with high-quality transport links and the capacity to act as growth drivers to complement the Regional Growth Centres.	Portlaoise	22050
		Graiguecullen	4692
SELF-SUSTAINING GROWTH TOWNS	Self-Sustaining Growth Towns with a moderate level of jobs and services – includes sub-county market towns and commuter towns with good transport links and capacity for continued commensurate growth to become more self- sustaining	Portarlington	6,596 (8,368 total including Offaly side)
SELF-SUSTAINING TOWNS	Self-Sustaining Towns with high levels of population growth and a weak employment base which are reliant on other areas for employment and/or services and which require targeted ‘catch up’ investment to become more self-sustaining.	Mountmellick	4777
		Abbeyleix	1770
		Stradbally	1350
		Mountrath	1774
TOWNS AND VILLAGES	Towns and villages with local service and employment functions	Durrow	835
		Rathdowney	1271
		Ballylinan	1101
VILLAGES (Pop > 500)	Villages that serve their local area	Clonaslee	566
		Killenard	671
		Ballyroan	563
		Borris In Ossary	508
RURAL REMAINDER (including villages with population <500)			36173

2.5 Laois Core Strategy Map

The Core Strategy Map (Map 2.2) provides a visual representation of the settlement distribution throughout the county and identifies the settlement hierarchy in the context of transport and infrastructure available, including the county’s national primary and secondary routes along with regional and local roads and the county’s railway line.

Map 2.2: Core Strategy Map

2.5.1  RURAL TYPOLOGIES

As required by the Core Strategy Guidance 2010, the Core Strategy must contain the classification of differing rural area types in map format in accordance with the 2005 Planning Guidelines on sustainable rural housing, which has been included in the Core Strategy Map. This classification is also an important factor in facilitating the development rural one off dwellings in the countryside in accordance with National Policy Objective 19 of the RSES – [Ensure, in providing for the development of rural housing, that a distinction is made between areas under strong urban influence, ie, within the commuter catchment of cities and large towns and centres of employment, and elsewhere], which is discussed in Chapter 4 on rural housing policy and indicated in Map 2.2 Core Strategy Map.

Rural area typologies where established by analysing data for each Electoral Division against a range of criteria including, commuting patterns, planning applications for rural housing over the past 3 years, environmental sensitivity, population change and pobal deprivation indices. In County Laois the following rural housing area designations apply:

Areas under Strong Urban Influence

Those rural areas within easy commuting distance of the main urban centres in County Laois and adjacent counties including the GDA[2] which are experiencing pressure from the development of urban generated housing in the open countryside. These areas are essentially:-

• The north and eastern areas in the County
• National, Strategic Regional Routes and Regional Routes as defined in Chapter 10

Continued high levels of single rural houses in these locations would inhibit the growth of the County’s urban areas which would result in a failure to achieve the growth targets. It would also cause further deterioration of rural amenities.

The key development plan objectives in these areas seeks to facilitate the genuine housing requirements of the rural community as identified by the planning authority in the light of local conditions while on the other hand directing urban generated development to areas zoned for new housing development in towns and villages.

Structurally Weak Areas

The rural areas generally exhibit characteristics such as persistent and significant population decline as well as a weaker economic structure based on indices of income, employment and economic growth. These rural areas are more distant from the major urban areas and the associated pressure from urban generated housing.

2.6  Population Projections to Meet Regional Population Target

According to the 2016 Census the total population of Laois is 84,697, an increase of 5.1% or 4,138 persons in the five year period since the 2011 Census – this was the 5th highest rate of growth in the state. The highest rates of growth in the state were recorded in Fingal (8.8%) and Meath (5.9%). The level of growth in Laois was significantly above the state average of 3.8% and slightly below the Eastern and Midland Regional Authority (EMRA) of 5.4%. A detailed analysis of population growth can be found in Section 3.1 of the Housing Strategy in Appendix 3.

Table 2.5: NPF / RSES Population Targets to 2026 and 2031

	Census 2016	2026 NPF / RSES Target	2031 NPF / RSES Target
EMRA Region	2,329,000	2,566,500-2,619,000	2,668,000-2,740,500
Midlands	292, 500	318,500-324,500	329,500-337,000
Laois	84,647	92,000-94,500	95,500-97,500

Source: Implementation Roadmap for NPF: Appendix 2

2.6.1  APPROACH

The approach to realize the population target as set out in the NPF implementation roadmap for County Laois, in its key towns and other settlements and rural area is set out in a robust evidence based analysis on requirements, completions / delivery and the social and physical capacity of the County’s settlements. This was done by analyzing the capacity of the all the towns and villages throughout the county to ascertain where future growth could be supported and informed by the following: 

• NPF and RSES guidance;
• Existing population and other demographics relating to the county;
• Planning history and levels of activity on sites / completions of development;
• Availability of infrastructure within each settlement;
• SEA / AA/ SFRA recommendations;
• Environmental constraints;
• Regeneration opportunities within settlements through identification of areas of dereliction/ vacancy, etc;
• Potential for economic and social development 
• Proposals for climate action in national, regional and local contexts.

2.6.2   POPULATION TRENDS

Within Laois, the County saw a population increase of 5.1% (+4,138 persons) during this period, as the population increased to 84,697 from 80,559. The level of growth in Laois was significantly above the state average of 3.8% and slightly below the Eastern and Midland Regional Authority (EMRA) of 5.4%. The County has had a steady growth of population since 1991. And even though the growth rates increased considerably over the 1996-2006 and 2006-2011, it dropped from 20.1% in 2011 to 5.1% in 2016 resulting in a slight growth of the population.

Table 2.6 Population Growth in County Laois 1996 - 2016

Year	1996	2002	2006	2011	2016
Population	52,945	58,774	67,059	80,559	84,697
Actual Change	-	5,829	8,285	13,500	4,138
% Change	-	11.0	14.1	20.1	5.1
Average Annual Increase	-	971	2,071	2,700	827

Source: CSO Statbank

According to the CSO’s parameters, a total of 40,979 people (48.3%) were living in urban settlements in Laois in 2016. 43,718 (51.6%) were living in smaller towns and villages, as well as in the rural remainder of the County. In 2011, census results showed a distribution between the urban and rural population as 47.3% and 52.6% respectively. Thus, Laois is slightly becoming more urban in nature as a whole.

The change in the population between successive Census can be broken down into the combined effect of natural increase (births less deaths) and net migration (immigration less emigration). The table below presents the components of intercensal population change back to 2002, which indicates the overall trend of the components align with the State. While the birth and death rates defining the natural growth of the population are close to the State figures over this period, the migration variation is above the Irish national average and is pushing the rate of population change in the County above the national figure. Within the County, except for the period of 2006-2011 where drastic fluctuations occurred, the overall trend of the components of population change shows a decline since 2002, which indicates that population is increasing with a slower growth rate.

Table 2.7: Components of Population Change

COMPONENT	2002	2006	2011	2016
Change in Pop since previous Census	5829	8285	13500	4138
Births since previous Census	4630	3835	6701	6123
Natural Increase since previous Census	1900	2300	4703	3888
Net Migration since previous Census	3929	5985	8797	250
Birth rate since previous Census (Avg. Annual Rate per 1000)	13.8	15.2	18.2	14.8
Death Rate since previous Census (Avg. Annual Rate per 1000)	8.1	6.1	5.4	5.4
Rate of Natural Increase since previous Census (Avg. Annual Rate per 1000)	5.7	32.9	12.7	9.4
Rate of Change in Population since previous Census (Avg. Annual Rate per 1000)	17.4	9.1	36.6	10
Rate of Net Migration since previous Census (Avg. Annual Rate per 1000)	11.7	23.8	23.8	0.6

Source CSO Statbank

2.6.3  POPULATION PROJECTIONS

A number of population scenarios for County Laois have been investigated to 2031, including two “Non-intervention Scenarios” relying upon growth rate of the population over the previous 5-year intercensal period. These non-intervention scenarios utilise a projection of population developed using the Cohort Component Method (CCM). They are called ‘Non-Intervention’ as they do not assume a policy-based interaction on the modeled trajectory of population growth across Laois as required by the NPF and RSES. CCM is used internationally as the best-in-class methodology for demographic projection, including by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to produce the Irish National and Regional population and labour force projections. It closely examines the interactions between the three key components driving changes in the population: mortality, fertility and migration.

Details of these scenarios are summarised in Section 3.1.5 of the Draft Housing Strategy in Appendix 3.

Policy-Intervention Scenario

The total projected population growth for County Laois for the period 2016-2027 is 10,003, from 84,697 to 94,700. The population projections of this Plan are based on a policy intervention scenario where the NPF/RSES population targets are used as the fixed variables and then an interpolation of the required level of change per annum was developed for the County from baseline year 2016 to NPF/RSES target years 2026 and 2031; thus, producing annualised figures over the period of 2021 and 2027 which is the lifetime of the Development Plan. Projections in this scenario indicates that the population of County Laois would increase to 89,349 by 2021 and to 94,700 by 2027, an increase of 6280.

Table 2.8: Projected Population Growth Over the Plan Period based upon NPF/RSES 2021 and 2031 Targets

Year	Total Population in County Laois	Annual Population Increase during Year	Annual Population Increase 2021-2027	Total Population Increase 2021-2027	Total Population Increase 2016-2027
2006	67,059	14.10%	-	-	-
2011	80,559	20.10%	-	-	-
2016	84,697	5.10%	-	-	-
2017	85,627	1.10%	930	-	-
2018	86,558	1.10%	930	-	-
2019	87,488	1.10%	930	-	-
2020	88,418	1.10%	930	-	-
2021	89,349	1.10%	930	-	-
2022	90,279	1.10%	930	-	-
2023	91,209	1.10%	930	-	-
2024	92,139	1.10%	930	-	-
2025	93,070	1.10%	930	-	-
2026	94,000	1.10%	930	-	-
2027	94,700	0.74%	700	6,280	10,000
2028	95,400	0.74%	700	-	-
2029	96,100	0.74%	700	-	-
2030	96,800	0.74%	700	-	-
2031	97,500	0.74%	700	-	-

A further breakdown of population targets by settlement is indicated in the Core Strategy Table in Section 2.8.1.

2.7  HOUSING REQUIREMENT

This section sets out key considerations in relation to residential land requirements for this Plan period as set out in the NPF and RSES. The NPF notes that the concept of headroom based solely on zoned land provision does not account for housing yield arising from the re-use of existing housing stock, mixed-use development, urban intensification or infill or brownfield development. Indeed, projected population growth must be planned in accordance with NPF National Policy Objectives 3a, b and c, which target infill and brownfield development within the existing built footprint of urban settlements, in particular the objective to target at least 30% of all new homes in settlements other than the five Cities and their suburbs, within their existing built-up footprints.

WHAT IS THE BUILT UP FOOTPRINT The built-up footprint of an urban settlement is defined by the CSO as an area with a minimum of 50 occupied dwellings, with a maximum distance between any dwelling and the building closest to it of 100 metres, and where there is evidence of an urban centre (shop, school etc.). The built-up area of each settlement has been defined by the Census 2016 and is indicated on each settlement zoning map in Volume 2 of this Plan.

A key objective of the Plan is to integrate and reconcile predicted requirements for residential land with actual provision on the ground having regard to, among other factors, the spatial distribution of development lands throughout the county and the need to support sustainable settlement patterns which in the longer term can be provided with essential physical and social infrastructure.

The NPF sets out a new, standardised methodology that addresses the differentiation between zoned land that is available for development and zoned land that requires significant further investment in services for infrastructure for development to be realised. In this regard, lands have only been identified for development where they are able to connect to existing development services, i.e. road and footpath access including public lighting, foul sewer drainage, surface water drainage and water supply, for which there is service capacity available, and can therefore accommodate new development.

These lands are also positioned within the existing built-up footprint of established settlements or contiguous to existing developed lands. Regard has also been given to the availability of serviced lands as well as the identification of lands that are not currently sufficiently serviced to support new development but have potential to become fully serviced within the life of the plan.

2.7.1 HOUSING TARGETS AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE

This section sets out key considerations in relation to residential land requirements for this Plan period as set out in the NPF and RSES. The NPF notes that the concept of headroom based solely on zoned land provision does not account for housing yield arising from the re-use of existing housing stock, mixed-use development, urban intensification or infill or brownfield development. Indeed, projected population growth must be planned in accordance with NPF National Policy Objectives 3a, b and c, which target infill and brownfield development within the existing built footprint of urban settlements, in particular the objective to target at least 30% of all new homes in settlements other than the five Cities and their suburbs, within their existing built-up footprints.

Table 2.9:  Projected Households over the Plan Period

Year	Total Population in Laois	Avg Household Size in Laois	No of Households (private)	No of Anticpated Houses per annum	Total Anticipated Houses 2021 – 2027	Avg Anticipated Houses per Annum 2021 – 2027
2006	67059	2.97	22591
2011	80559	2.88	28020
2016	84697	2.91	29107
2017	85627	2.89	29630	523
2018	86558	2.87	30161	531
2019	87488	2.85	30693	537
2020	88418	2.83	31240	543
2021	89349	2.81	31789	549
2022	90279	2.79	32344	555
2023	91209	2.77	32905	561
2024	92139	2.75	33472	567
2025	93070	2.73	34046	574
2026	94000	2.71	34625	580
2027	94700	2.70	35126	501	3886	555

The above total anticipated housing figure has been based on a graduated household size/occupancy. The average occupancy rate in Laois in 2016 was 2.9 compared to a state average of 2.75. However, the NPF states that this is expected to decline to around 2.5 by 2040, while also acknowledging that household sizes in urban areas tend to be smaller than in the suburbs or rural parts of the country.

In line with this projected trend, a graduated average household size is utilised within this Plan, however this rate is expected to fall to 2.7 by 2027 based on an evidenced-based assessment of Laois household size over 2006 - 2016 indicated in the Table below.

Table 2.10: Projected Household Size

Year	Total Population in County Laois	Average Household Size in County Laois
2006	67059	2.97
2011	80559	2.88
2016	84697	2.91
2017	85627	2.89
2018	86558	2.87
2019	87488	2.85
2020	88418	2.83
2021	89349	2.81
2022	90279	2.79
2023	91209	2.77
2024	92139	2.75
2025	93070	2.73
2026	94000	2.71
2027	94700	2.70

2.7.2  HOUSING PERMITTED AND COMPLETED

The global recession and collapse of the property market in 2008 resulted in the stagnation of household construction in the County and across the State. Census data indicates that the private housing stock of the County in 2011 was 28,020[3] and increased marginally by 3.7% to 29,107[4] in 2016. Since then, there has been a sustained rise in the number of residential units completed. The table below indicates that the housing stock has increased by 817[5]units or 2.7% during the period 2016 - 2020.

Table 2.11: Unit Completion 2016 – 2020

Year	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020 (Jan – Sep)
Unit Completion	103	117	235	242	120

Source: CSO Statbank

2.7.3  RESIDENTIAL LAND ZONED IN PREVIOUS THE PLAN

The following table sets out the area of land zoned for residential use / mixture of residential and other uses in the County Development Plan 2017-2023 and Draft County Development Plan 2021 - 2027, together with the number of housing units allocated to these lands.

Table 2.12: Residential Zoned Land

	CDP 2017 - 2023	CDP 2021 - 2027
Land zoned to accommodate residential development	273 ha	149 ha
No of residential units[6]	3,216  units	5,202

2.8  Core Strategy and Housing Allocation

The Section of the Plan indicates the distribution of future population and housing across the county’s settlements. The position of each town in the settlement hierarchy has been clearly linked to the quantitative population allocations. The distribution of future population and household growth in this Plan is based on the key principles of the NPF and RSES of delivering more compact growth but must also align population and employment growth. Growth is therefore targeted in large urban centres that have the capacity and greatest potential for growth on a sustainable platform. In addition there will be greater co-ordination between land use zoning and infrastructure availability through the implementation of the ‘Tiered Approach to Land Use Zoning’ set out in the NPF as indicated in Section 2.7. Along with key demographic change in indicated in Section 2.6.2, the following key considerations also informed this approach:

1. Compact Growth

In accordance with the principles of compact Growth, at least 30% of housing within settlements is to be within the existing built up footprint area in conjunction with sequential development of settlements. The preferred choice for residential development is within town and village centres, however there are limiting factors which may be applicable e.g. the historic formation of many of the main towns in County Laois, flooding implications (as identified in the Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA), inadequate access, limited and fragmented land holdings and the requirement to facilitate retail development in these locations in accordance with the sequential test under the Retail Planning: Guidelines for Planning Authorities (DECLG, 2012).

This Plan also recognises the social and economic benefits of the redevelopment of brownfield lands to promote urban regeneration and will continue to support the delivery of compact growth and regeneration of under utilised sites in towns and villages throughout Laois. The achievement of this, the NPF notes, has the potential to make a transformational difference. It can bring new life and footfall to existing settlements, contribute to the viability of services, shops and public transport, increase housing supply and enable more people to be closer to employment and recreational opportunities, as well as supporting a more sustainable transport mode shift.

An analysis of the potential capacity of infill and brownfield lands zoned for residential, town/village centre, or mixed use developments in all settlements indicates that approximately 1,709 units could be delivered on these lands. This equates to 33% of the household allocation for the County. The development of these lands will make an important contribution to the creation of more sustainable communities in the County and will support the implementation of the national and regional policy objectives of creating more compact settlements.

2. Climate Change and Environmental Sensitivity

Climate change has an increasing role to play in how we plan for the future. This Plan has a critical role to play in ensuring our communities develop having regard to sustainable infrastructure networks which build resilience to climate change. A key component is delivering housing in a compact, sustainable way which better integrates with sustainable transport modes to become less dependent on single vehicular use.

Consideration is given to; ground and surface water vulnerability and any potential environmental impact (including SEA, HAD, EU Water Framework Directive, River Basin Management Plans and Flood Risk Management) requirements; availability of services and infrastructure; potential for economic and social development of the settlement; the sequential test; ground and surface water vulnerability; planning history and market availability/choice. A Strategic Environmental Assessment and Appropriate Assessment has been prepared in tandem with the Core Strategy. The Core Strategy has had regard to both assessments with any changes/recommendations incorporated into the strategy.

3. Extant Planning Permission

A detailed review of extant planning permissions has been carried out and a total of 1562 units has been recorded. It has been concluded that there are a number of unknowns in relation to the delivery of these units. While the Council works closely with associated parties to assist in bringing forward these sites for development, external market forces may prohibit this. It is considered that there is a relatively small number of these permissions to wither over the plan period. Many of those that have acquired extension of durations on permissions during the plan period 2017-2023 pursuant to Section 42 of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended), may also not come forward during this Plan period.

The Core Strategy Table (Table 2.15) does not deduct population that would be catered for in committed land by way of extant permission or Part VIII approvals.

4. Vacant Housing Stock

Census 2016 results record a total housing stock of 33,115 in Laois, an increase of just 541 on 2011 levels. In that time, the rate of vacant housing has fallen from 12.5% to 10.0% (-785 units). In other words, there were 35.5 vacant homes per 1,000 people in 2016, a fall from the corresponding figure of 48.88 recorded in 2011. This indicates the existing vacant stock is absorbing much of the growing need for housing in the county.

Table 2.16: Residential Vacancy

Housing Stock	Vacant Holiday Homes	Other Vacant Dwellings	Total Vacancy	% Vacancy
33,115	139	3,163	3,302	10

Source: CSO Statbank

2.8.1  CORE STRATEGY TABLE

The ‘Core Strategy Table’ below, sets out the population projections and household allocation for each settlement up to 2027. This table provides details of the most recent population (2016), population projections, the housing allocation for 2021 - 2027 for each settlement based on the Draft Housing Strategy (Appendix 3) analysis, the number of housing units which must be delivered within the built up footprint of each settlement and the quantum of land required for the delivery of the housing allocation based on a specific density[7] for each settlement.

Following the population allocations set out in the Core Strategy Table below, zoning maps are provided in Volume 2, Settlement Plans, to reflect these figures and to indicate the quantum and locations of future development for the plan period.

It is considered that the lands identified for residential development are sufficient to meet the population targets set out in the Core Strategy Table and reflect each settlements role in the Settlement Hierarchy.

The amount and location of zoned lands required in each settlement was determined using an evidence-based settlement typology and asset-based approach, as detailed in Section 2.4.1 of the Plan and the considerations of Section 2.7.3.

The following table, Table 2.15 Core Strategy, indicates the population and housing projections for County Laois.

 

Table 2.15: Core Strategy Table

Settlement	Population 2016	Population Allocation	NPF Projected Population 2027	Projected Population increase to 2016 - 2027	Housing Allocation 2016-2027[8]	Approx Units Completed 2016-2020[9]	Housing Allocation for County Laois 2021-2027[10]	Residential Units to be Delivered on Infill / Brownfield Sites[11]	Residential Units to be Delivered on Greenfield Sites	Quantum of Greenfield Land Required for Residential Development
COUNTY LAOIS	84,697	100%	94,700	10,003	6,019	817	5,202	1,709	3,493	106.2
KEY TOWN (Density 35 units/ha)
Portlaoise	22,050	29.5%	25,001	2,951	1,776	250	1,526	834	692	19.7
Graiguecullen	4,692	9%	5,592	900	542	50	492	0	492	14
SELF SUSTAINING GROWTH TOWN (30 units/ha)
Portarlington	6,596	14.5%	8,046	1,450	873	25	848	310	538	17.9
SELF SUSTAINING TOWN (30 units/ha)
Mountmellick	4,777	3%	5,077	300	181	0	181	60	121	4
Abbeyleix	1,770	4%	2,170	400	241	0	241	60	181	6
Stradbally	1,350	3%	1,650	300	181	16	165	130	35	1.1
Mountrath	1,774	2.5%	2,024	250	150	0	150	30	120	4
TOWNS (15 units/ha)
Durrow	835	1%	935	100	60	0	60	25	35	2.3
Rathdowney	1,271	1%	1,371	100	60	0	60	20	40	2.6
Ballylinan	1,101	3%	1,401	300	181	12	169	25	144	9.5
VILLAGES POP > 500 (15 units/ha)
Clonaslee	566	1%	666	100	60	9	51	0	51	3.4
Borris in Ossory	508	1.25%	633	125	75	0	75	40	35	2.3
Ballyroan	563	1%	668	105	63	0	63	47	16	1
Killenard	671	0%	671	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
VILLAGES POP <500 AND OPEN COUNTRYSIDE (12 units/ha)
As above	36,173	26.25%	38,794	2,621	1,578	452	1,122[4]	128	993	17.8

 

2.9 Core Strategy Policies and Objectives